IMPACT, AMIR, and Reality


(Mistakatonic University Press) - Now that the draft is over, Arkham Grave Robbers' President, Jeb Whatley, wants the world to know: Rating systems work.

"We've relied on the AMI [Arkham Malevolent Intelligence] and its rating system as long as I can remember. The recent college draft is a perfect example. A little supernatural evil can go a long way."

"If you look at the AMIR [AMI Rankings] and the IMPACT rating system, you'll see that they do a very good job of predicting how things will turn out. Compared with how the draft actually came out, the AMIR were extremely accurate. The occasional perfect predicition was just icing on the cake. Look at Darryl Gardner, for example. The AMI said he'd be picked 50, and he was. We managed to get 20 out of 84 picks within 3 selections of reality, and only 12 players dropped more than a 12 picks (a round) below predictions."

"16 rookies were selected at least 12 picks above our predictions. Hopefully, that means bad draft picks by coaches. In the case of players like Tyrone Haselrig, Kenny Proctor, Darin Hall and Monte Nebs, it may just be someonething the AMI ate that day. That thing can be damn temperamental at times."

Whatley continues: "Of course, we ask the AMI to rate players for on-field performance. That's the key. But it's amazing how the APFL coaches see things. I guess there 's a little 'AMI' in each of us. And we definitely feel we had a superb draft. A couple of starters fell to us in middle rounds. We owe it all to the AMI. We're looking at starting five or six young guys this year. I don't think there's a team out there that can match our 'Jumbo' package. And we're also very happy with our defensive line. Again, the AMI did a great job."

Asked about the IMPACT system, Whatley said, "IMPACT was also a good tool. It seemed to rate the lower-tier receivers better than AMI, or maybe those guys are really as bad as they seem [chuckles]. The AMI was about 2 picks closer than IMPACT for predicting when a rookie was selected. Like I said before, there's no telling what some GMs will do. Once we have the AMI reading the rosters of the drafting teams, it should be even better."

"I think there's a lesson to be learned here. You can spend lots of time pouring over combine results and psych evaluations. You can tear your hair out deciding if a fullback or a tight end will help your team more. Or, like we do in Arkham, you can just turn it all over to an extra-dimensional monster and let it do the sorting for you. I don't think anyone can argue with our resuts. Well, except we still need a linebacker..."



Where Ratings and Reality Meet

                                             AMIR  IMPACT
POS    NAME            Drafted IMPACT AMIR   diff   diff
FB     Sam Buck           1     21     6     -5     -20
DL     Allan Covington    2     4      3     -1     -2
CB     Ned Jarvis         3     19     2      1     -16
DL     Darin Hall         4     16     20    -16    -12
HB     Kenny Proctor      5     27     23    -18    -22
LB     David Saaverda     6     3      9     -3      3
FB     Newton Noonan      7     13     6      1     -6
WR     Henry Bodine       8     23     5      3     -15
LB     Kenny Arnold       9     25     9      0     -16
S      Darryl Miller     10     9      16    -6      1
QB     Scott Hennig      11     2      19    -8      9
WR     Shannon Shepard   12     37     18    -6     -25
S      Nicholas Collard  13     19     21    -8     -6
WR     Miguel Evans      14     10     15    -1      4
S      Alex Chamblee     15     43     24    -9     -28
OL     Dennis Williams   16     8      6      10     8
DL     Cary Carlson      17     38     40    -23    -21
OL     Clarke Bennett    18     10     1      17     8
TE     Jed Sinks         19     29     4      15    -10
OL     Oscar Townsend    20     5      12     8      15
LB     Tim Greenleaf     21     16     13     8      5
HB     Homer Thomas      22     54     46    -24    -32
LB     Tad Ramsey        23     7      22     1      16
K      Sidney Evans      24     6      25    -1      18
LB     Bryan Fain        25     34     13     12    -9
OL     Bob Washington    26     12     33    -7      14
OL     Ethan Gillette    27     15     37    -10     12
CB     Keith Sims        28     31     17     11    -3
DL     Tyrone Haselrig   29     51     50    -21    -22
LB     Andy Crowe        30     26     26     4      4
TE     Sean Kay          31     44     9      22    -13
QB     Matt Wheeler      32     18     44    -12     14
OL     Vic Salisbury     33     22     36    -3      11
S      Donnell Sims      34     14     29     5      20
WR     Glen Heller       35     79     92    -57    -44
HB     James Friedrich   36     56     41    -5     -20
QB     Ricky West        37     1      27     10     36
OL     Irwin Lewis       38     35     41    -3      3
K      Brett Ross        39     32     30     9      7
TE     Richmond Warrick  40     49     31     9     -9
CB     Paul Fullington   41     57     48    -7     -16
HB     John Calloway     42     38     32     10     4
DL     Nevin Carlson     43     28     28     15     15
OL     Monte Nebbs       44     66     61    -17    -22
DL     Leonard Matthews  45     57     64    -19    -12
OL     Dave Furrer       46     41     57    -11     5
FB     Rick Hasty        47     74     68    -21    -27
HB     Don Jackson       48     41     34     14     7
DL     Mark McGuire      49     48     54    -5      1
LB     Darryl Gardner    50     47     50     0      3
LB     Clayton Orlando   51     61     58    -7     -10
S      Adrian Elway      52     76     73    -21    -24
QB     Steve Heart       53     33     55    -2      20
WR     Don Hellestrae    54     70     93    -39    -16
TE     Garin Mersereau   55     42     37     18     13
S      Curtis O'Conner   56     55     53     3      1
TE     Don Fluke         57     53     41     16     4
OL     Igor Spitulski    58     67     65    -7     -9
CB     Tad Millnichik    59     46     46     13     13
TE     Spencer Wakeman   60     49     59     1      11
HB     Phil Underwood    61     45     37     24     16
DL     Clarence Novacek  62     63     77    -15    -1
FB     Brian Wright      63     78     67    -4     -15
TE     Tim Scott         64     87     95    -31    -23
QB     Roger Fear        65     23     60     5      42
S      Jeff Walker       66     65     56     10     1
S      Wyatt Cushman     67     80     73    -6     -13
WR     Gary Beauchamp    68     80     94    -26    -12
CB     Jim Brook         69     98     99    -30    -29
TE     Vance Clark       70     69     72    -2      1
QB     Ron Utterbach     71     29     44     27     42
LB     Marcus Bull       72     77     84    -12    -5
DL     Carlos Binder     73     63     81    -8      10
TE     Tim Wallace       74     83     98    -24    -9
FB     Daniel Brady      76     71     52     24     5
DL     Randy Jacoby      76     86     83    -7     -10
LB     Greg Clark        77     73     71     6      4
OL     Guy Widell        78     97     77     1     -19
HB     Eric Mitchell     79     84     80    -1     -5
FB     Randall Sutter    80     82     68     12    -2
CB     Patrick Price     81     82     87    -6     -1
LB     Mike Kaufman      82     74     85    -3      8
HB     Dwight Larson     83     59     65     18     24
CB     Frankie Caito     84     83     76     8      1

Rated but not drafted:

K      Roman Snow               62     35
K      Vinny Dawson             60     48
K      Roger Zoon               67     62
QB     Tracy Jennison           35     63
K      Moe Clifton              71     70
QB     Ralph Burnett            52     75
FB     Eli Williams             86     79
QB     Cass Raymond             38     82

"You can see that even though some kickers had future promise, most teams didn't have a need at that spot, likewise with quarterbacks. With the exception of the two kickers, these were marginal picks. There were also a few players for whom the coaches and ratings agreed: Not good enough. Overall, I'm proud of the AMI. It did a great job of helping us find the talent."


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